As we move deeper into May, the Maltese islands undergo a dramatic transformation. The lush greenery of spring begins to fade into the golden hues of summer, & the conversation in local squares inevitably shifts to one topic: when will the real heat arrive? While we often associate scorching temperatures with July & August, May has a history of delivering unexpected heat flares that catch the islands off guard.

A Look At The Records

The burning question for many is whether we will hit the 30°C mark before June. Statistically, May is a transitional month with a very comfortable average daily high of 24°C. However, “average” rarely tells the whole story in the Mediterranean.

Malta’s weather archives show that May is no stranger to extremes. When high-pressure systems draw in hot, dry air from the North African desert – often referred to as an African plume – temperatures can skyrocket. In fact, record highs for May have previously breached 35°C, effectively skipping spring & diving straight into peak summer conditions.

The Mediterranean “Air Conditioner”

Why don’t we see the 40°C+ temperatures that our neighbours in North Africa experience during these plumes? We owe that to the sea.

In May, the Mediterranean remains relatively cool, averaging around 19°C. Because water takes much longer to heat up than land, the sea acts as a natural air conditioner. As hot air moves across the water toward the islands, it is cooled from below, a process that usually keeps our temperatures somewhat tempered compared to the mainland. However, when the wind is particularly strong or the plume is exceġtionally hot, even the cooling effect of the sea can’t stop the mercury from climbing.

El Niño & The 2026 Outlook

Weather patterns this year are being influenced by the lingering effects of global climate shifts. While a “standard” spring involves a gradual climb in temperature, anomalies in atmospheric pressure can trigger early-season heatwaves. Predicting a heat flare involves monitoring these plumes as they break away from the Sahara. Whether we face a record-breaking month or a mild run-up to summer depends on how frequently these southern winds dominate our forecast.